49ers Should Not Commit to Alex Smith Long Term

         Forty Niners quarterback Alex Smith may be a free agent, but the 49ers have made it clear they want him back. Coach Harbaugh has also said that Smith will be the team's quarterback for next year. It is understanding that the team wants to bring Smith back. He had his best season last year. He did not turn the ball over much, lead many 4th quarter comebacks, and he helped the team to the NFC Championship game.
        However, here's my suggestion to the 49ers: don't commit Alex Smith to a long term contract. I know Smith played great last year and he is only 27 years old. However, I wouldn't call his season outstanding. People seem to forget that the 49ers team was lead by a great defense that featured many Pro Bowl selections. They didn't allow a rushing touchdown until the second to last game of the regular season. They also didn't allow a 100 yard rusher until the second to last game of the season. Also the team closed out the season with the second fewest points in the NFL. The defense was the reason for the 49ers success, not Alex Smith.
       While the defense ranked in the top of most categories, the offense was the opposite. The team was one of the lowest in the NFL in pass yards, was one of the lowest in points scored, and worst of all, they had one of the worst red zone offenses in the league. They were one of the least successful teams in scoring touchdowns once they were in the red zone. That is why a good chunk of the teams points came from kicker David Akers and that is why Akers set a franchise record in points scored in a season. All of these low stats have to be blamed on the quarterback. The only area on offense where they ranked high was in rushing yards but that has to do with Frank Gore, not the quarterback. The reason why Alex Smith looked so good this year was because in years past, he was so horrible and so when you compare this season to years past of course he looks a lot better. However, that doesn't mean he is a Pro-Bowler no matter how much Harbaugh wants you to believe he is. If he was, he would have been selected.  What made Alex Smith's season great was that  he didn't screw up. He didn't turn the ball over. That was what made him such a bad quarterback in years past. He would throw just as many interceptions as he did touchdowns. This year he was one of the quarterbacks with the least turnovers. So yes, he was great at not making mistakes but that doesn't make one a great quarterback. That just means you are not a bad quarterback. At best Alex Smith was average.
      Now some will argue that the reason for keeping Smith long term is that Hargbaugh can continue to develop Smith so that he performs better stats. I don't see that happening. Smith has been in the league for seven years. If he needs that much babysitting from Harbaugh at this point in his career that he can't play better at his job without his coach, then he does not have much leverage with the 49ers.  Where else is Smith going to go and find a coach as good as Harbaugh. Plus, can Smith afford to join another team and learn another new system. That's why the 49ers shouldn't give in to Smiths demands for a five year contract. They should offer at most three years and tell Smith to take it or leave it. Smith will pretty much have no choice.
     The biggest reason for not committing to Smith long term is not because I think he is terrible but I think the quarterback behind him can be better. Colin Kaepernick is a great athlete who can throw the ball ball and rush with the ball at ease. In college he was one of a only a few quarterbacks to rush for over 1000 yards and throw for over 2000 yards in the same season.  He carried Nevada University on his back and lead them to big wins against big schools such as Cal Berkeley and Boise State. When I watched him play he reminded me of Steve Young as both quarterbacks used their run threats just as well as their throwing abilities. Smith is not a dual threat quarterback. Kaepernick is and that can be a great advantage in the NFL. Kaepernick still needs some developing so he doesn't need to be rushed in next season. However, Kaepernick is only under contract for three more years.
      The last thing I want to see the 49ers do is sign Alex Smith for five years and then lose Kaepernick to free agency because he feels he won't get a shot to start with San Francisco. He was a second round draft pick so obviously he was highly regarded for and many teams would love to have him as their starter. Imagine what would have happen if Green Bay had kept Brett Favre around longer and then lost Aaron Rodgers to free agency. They probably wouldn't win their fourth Super Bowl like they did recently. With all due respect to Smith, he is no Brett Favre. If Favre can be replaced so can Smith. Anyone in the NFL can be replaced after Steve Young replaced Joe Montana.  We are talking about a Hall of Famer. Alex Smith is no Hall of Famer, although Harbaugh wouldn't surprise me if he said Smith was. He sure likes to boost up Smith's confidence beyond realistic expectations.
     That is why the 49ers really need to be careful with how long they commit to Alex Smith. He is not the future and you do not want to sacrifice the future of Kaepernick just to keep Smith around.